WIS First Alert Blog

The Dry Spell Continues.

As of today, here in the Midlands of SC we have not seen rain in a month (30 days) and the dry weather is leading to a host of concerns across the area.

The drought has been spreading east, which now includes the central Midlands in Abnormally dry conditions. The Upstate of South Carolina is now in an extreme drought. Here is the latest drought monitor.

The drought monitor measures the amount of moisture in the soil, and the dew point measures the amount of moisture in the air, and the air is just as dry as the soil these days.

Here is the current dew point, which shows several areas in the 30s, which indicate very dry air.

Generally speaking, dew points below 45 are equivalent to crisp, dry Fall air. Values in the upper 40s and mid 50s are comfortable here in the southeastern US. Anytime a dew point temperature is over 55, it usually starts to feel sticky and uncomfortable (muggy) Southern states spend most of the Spring and Summer in the muggy/sticky category.

Here is where we stand today on the Sticky Meter.

Keep your skin moisturized to combat the dry conditions and enjoy it while it lasts!

Von Gaskin

The Earliest Snow for the Midlands

November 1^st of 2014 is the earliest snow on record for the Midlands of South Carolina.

Lexington County had the highest snow totals.

Gilbert and Red Bank received 4.5inches, Summit, 4.0

Lexington, Saluda, Pelion, 2.0 and an inch for Batesburg,  less than an inch for Newberry and just a trace at the airport.

Before 2014 the earliest snow was on November 9th, 1913.

 

It is hard to believe that we were dealing with snow 2 years ago today

And now, it’s like we are in an Indian Summer for most of the month of

October.  An Indian Summer is a period of unseasonably warm and dry weather occurring between Late September  to Mid November.

Look at these numbers, On Halloween of this year we reached 86, with temperatures near 90 on the day before.

NOAA's Climate Center  is consistent with South  Carolina seeing a near average weather pattern for November through January.

Von Gaskin

Updated Long Range Seasonal Outlook

Despite Matthew's impacts, October is most certainly ending on a dry, beautiful note with nearly perfect conditions across most of the south.   NOAA's Climate Center just recently released the updated long range outlooks for November through January.   This forecast is consistent with a typical weather pattern in our part of the country as La Nina begins in the eastern Pacific ocean with cooler than normal oceanic temperatures. 

Here are the updated maps for November.

Now, for the 3 month outlooks...

-Ben Tanner

 

A look at rainfall, halfway through October

October in the Midlands is one of our drier months, despite it commonly having moisture and rainfall from tropical systems.

So far this month, all rainfall that has occurred, can all be traced to a single event. Of course, that event is Hurricane Matthew.

Officially, 4.45" of rain has fallen at KCAE (The Columbia Metropolitan Airport). All of that fell Friday night (October 7th) through Saturday (October 8th).

No other rain has fallen. This makes for a great fair forecast. While it may be possible for us to go through the entire fair without a drop of rain, some chances are in the forecast. Rain may return Friday and Saturday of this coming week with 30 and 40% chances respectively.

Chief Meteorologist Robb Ellis

Hurricane Matthew Rainfall and Highest Wind Gusts in the Midlands

Hurricane Matthew’s effects are winding down, but here’s a look at the highest winds and rainfall totals from around the Midlands and South Carolina.

 

In the Midlands, the winds gusts the highest in Orangeburg and Sumter with gusts over 60 mph. Around South Carolina, Hilton Head took a pounding from gusts to near 90 mph.

 

Rainfall forecast compared to observed values.

 

Rainfall totals varied greatly across the Midlands, with 2 to 4” of rain from Saluda to Columbia. To the east, rainfall totals ramped up quickly. 4 to 6” of rain fell from Columbia to Bishopville.

Highest rainfall totals were in Orangeburg and Clarendon Counties with totals over 4 to 8.” Some isolated amounts were over 8 inches.

  

...Maximum Wind Gust Reports through 5 pm Saturday...

 

Location                     Speed          

Orangeburg Municipal Airport 64 MPH     

Shaw Afb                     63 MPH      

Mcentire Ang                 58 MPH      

Sumter Municipal Airport     52 MPH       

8 E Summerton                52 MPH     

Cheraw Municipal Airport     47 MPH       

8 WSW Snelling               46 MPH       

Columbia Metro Airport       46 MPH      

5 NNE Santee                 46 MPH      

6 E Jefferson                45 MPH      

Aiken Municipal Airport      44 MPH       

Augusta Bush Field           43 MPH      

2 W Blackville               43 MPH       

2 SE Fort Jackson            41 MPH      

Winnsboro                    41 MPH      

Newberry County Airport      40 MPH       

8 SE New Ellenton            39 MPH       

7 NW Camden                  37 MPH      

Daniel Field Airport         37 MPH      

Lancaster County Airport     37 MPH

Columbia Hamilton-owens Down 36 MPH      

2 SSE Red Bank               33 MPH     

6 SSW Augusta                32 MPH      

Cheraw                       32 MPH         

 

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying

equipment and exposures. Not all data listed are considered official.

 

...24 Hour Rainfall Reports Through 5 pm...

Location                     Amount           

Manning 8.2 S                11.00 in       
2 W Blackville               10.75 in        
Branchville 2.5 SE           10.15 in        
1 SE Manning                 10.00 in          
6 WSW Santee                 9.70 in         
5 NNE Santee                 9.60 in          
Holly Hill 0.4 N             8.35 in       
Usgs Raingage                6.60 in      
Orangeburg                   6.53 in      
1 ESE Sumter                 6.23 in         
South Fork Edisto River      6.18 in       
2 W Cordova                  6.10 in         
Lugoff 2ne                   5.90 in         
2 SE Fort Jackson            5.82 in        
6 E Jefferson                5.80 in         
8 E Fort Jackson             5.69 in     
6 NNW Brookdale              5.60 in         
Black Creek Below Chesterfie 5.47 in        
6 SW Eastover                5.34 in      
Sumter                       5.30 in          
2 W Blackville               5.27 in         
3 NE Bishopville             5.12 in     
1 ESE Elgin                  5.04 in      
Mcentire Ang                 5.01 in       
5 SSE Fort Jackson           4.90 in       
1 WSW Barnwell               4.89 in        
3 SE Pageland                4.88 in       
1 E Lexington                4.72 in        
1 ENE Perry                  4.70 in        
Lugoff 2.2 NNW               4.68 in       
Orangeburg 3.9 N             4.64 in     
Wagener 1.4 S                4.62 in        
1 ESE Columbia               4.55 in        
4 E Woodford                 4.50 in      
Waynesboro/girard 8nnw       4.43 in      
University Of South Carolina 4.42 in          
8 WSW Snelling               4.41 in        
4 S New Ellenton             4.41 in    
Waynesboro 3.3 SW            4.38 in        
3 ESE Windsor                4.33 in         
2 NE New Ellenton            4.25 in       
4 NE Dentsville              4.23 in        
Lexington 4.2 ENE            4.15 in        
Lexington                    4.14 in       
6 NE Camden                  4.13 in       
Shaw Afb                     4.08 in         
1 W Cheraw                   4.05 in       
1 NE Oak Grove               4.04 in        
Lexington 3.0 WSW            4.00 in         
2 ESE Pageland               3.78 in      
2 WNW Oswego                 3.73 in       
Bishopville                  3.70 in        
Columbia Hamilton-owens Down 3.65 in     
Gilbert 1.0 SE               3.49 in        
Brier Creek Near Waynesboro  3.49 in        
Columbia Metro Airport       3.45 in       
2 NE New Ellenton            3.44 in       
5 WSW Elgin                  3.42 in         
Longtown                     3.42 in        
3 ENE Blythewood             3.40 in        
Chapin 2.8 SSE               3.35 in         
Cayce                        3.31 in       
2 NE Lexington               3.30 in      
2 S Aiken                    3.29 in     
3 S Aiken                    3.27 in       
4 S Aiken                    3.25 in        
2 S Chapin                   3.23 in        
4 ENE Camden                 3.20 in         
1 SSE Waynesboro             3.14 in        
2 NE New Ellenton            3.11 in      
Lugoff                       3.04 in        
3 ENE New Ellenton           3.00 in         
1 ENE Red Bank               2.97 in        
Columbia 3.1 E               2.87 in        
Saluda R Blo Lk Murray D.    2.84 in       
2 SW Oak Grove               2.84 in        
2 SW Pomaria                 2.83 in       
1 ENE Oakland                2.78 in
5 NE Dentsville              2.77 in     
5 N Summit                   2.77 in      
Aiken                        2.75 in     
1 SW Lexington               2.70 in    
Usc Rain                     2.69 in 
Indian Land 4.7 S            2.68 in     
Cedar Crk                    2.65 in       
Lancaster Rain Gauge         2.65 in      
1 SSW Gilbert                2.61 in 
2 SSE Aiken                  2.61 in 
3 SSE Aiken                  2.60 in 
Lexington 1.6 WNW            2.60 in 
4 SSW Chapin                 2.58 in 
6 S Monetta                  2.56 in  
4 W Red Bank                 2.54 in   
1 S Chapin                   2.54 in  
Lexington                    2.50 in  
Water Filter Plant           2.50 in 
4 SSW Aiken                  2.46 in   
6 SW Lake Murray of Richland 2.42 in 
1 SW Cayce                   2.40 in
2 SSE Red Bank               2.38 in  
2 ENE Belvedere              2.35 in
Augusta                      2.30 in 
3 ENE Saluda                 2.24 in
Aiken 2.7 NW                 2.23 in  
Lancaster 11.0 ENE           2.21 in  
Ridge Spring                 2.14 in  
2 NE Lake Murray Of Richland 2.13 in   
1 NW Irmo                    2.11 in 
3 SW Elgin                   2.08 in 
2 WNW Aiken                  2.06 in 
9 NNE Aiken                  2.05 in  
4 SW Johnston                2.01 in   
Lancaster                    2.00 in 
Midville                     1.98 in 
Irmo 3.3 NW                  1.96 in 
Saluda                       1.96 in 
Aiken                        1.95 in
6 SSW Augusta                1.88 in 
Augusta Bush Field           1.88 in  
4 NE Murphys Estates         1.87 in 
1 ESE Blythe                 1.81 in 
1 NW Aiken                   1.79 in 
3 NNW Lancaster              1.77 in
6 NW Windsor                 1.76 in
Saluda                       1.74 in
4 SSE Blythewood             1.71 in  
Usgs Rain Gage At Scdot Offi 1.66 in
5 NE Murphys Estates         1.61 in   
2 SSW Trinity                1.57 in  
Daniel Field Airport         1.57 in  
Edgefield                    1.56 in  
Saluda                       1.56 in  

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying

equipment and exposures. Not all data listed are considered official.

Friday Breakdown - Hurricane Matthew

Hurricane Matthew arrives today and tonight, with the peak of the storm expected Saturday morning.

LATEST UPDATE (2AM Advisory)

•    Weakens to a Category 3
•    Max winds : 120 mph
•    Gusts in Florida approaching Hurricane strength.
•    Expect landfall in Florida this morning

ALERTS

We remain in FIRST ALERT MODE.

                Friday and Saturday : Direct weather impacts from Matthew

 
 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

• Flash Flood Watches are up for most of the state
• Hurricane Warnings from South Santee River to Florida
• Tropical Storm Warnings North of South Santee River (Georgetown and Horry Counties)
• Tropical Storm Warnings for several inland counties in the Low Country
• Wind Advisories for a few Midlands counties south and east of Columbia
                  (Orangeburg, Calhoun, Sumter, Lee, Clarendon)

 

 

IMPACTS

Midlands:

                Rainfall totals of 2” to 4” are possible in Columbia. Southern and eastern Midlands may see 4 to 8”

                Winds may approach tropical storm force at times on Friday night and Saturday

SC Coast:

                Hurricane conditions are expected

                Winds gusting to 74+ mph

                Rainfall of 8” to 12”. Isolated higher amounts.

 

TIMELINE

Friday

                Morning showers

                Isolated tornado warnings

Friday Night

                Rain becomes heavier.

                Gusty winds and squalls

                Isolated tornado warnings

                Storm Surge begins in Hilton Head, Charleston

Saturday

                Storm Surge of 6 to 12 feet along the coast

                Hurricane force winds along coast

                Gusty winds (40-60mph gusts) inland

                Power outages expected

                Some Flash Flood Warnings Likely

                Isolated tornado warnings

 

HURRICANE MATTHEW - Thursday Breakdown

The Matthew marathon continues. Here’s today’s breakdown!

 

LATEST UPDATE (2AM Advisory)

Max winds are 115 mph. Strengthening is expected.

An eye has reformed. A sign that strengthening is happening.

The track continues to hug the coast and Matthew will likely track on or just offshore of the SC coast on Saturday.

 

ALERTS

We remain in FIRST ALERT MODE.

Thursday: Traffic is our primary concern

Friday and Saturday : Direct weather impacts from Matthew

Hurricane Watches are now posted for parts of the SC coast. These will be fluid and constantly changing through the day.

 

 

 

IMPACTS

Midlands:

                Rainfall totals of 1” to 2” are possible in Columbia. Southern and eastern Midlands may see 3 to 4”

                Winds may approach tropical storm force at times on Friday night and all day Saturday

SC Coast:

                Hurricane conditions are expected

                Winds gusting to 74+ mph

                Rainfall of 6” to 10”. Isolated higher amounts.

 

TIMELINE

 

Thursday

            No Weather Impacts

            Evacuation Traffic continues and increases

            Hurricane Watches continue up the coast

            High Wind Warnings

            High Wind Warnings (tropical Storm) probably issued for Midlands Counties

            Flash Flood Watches likely

            Hurricane Watches likely upgraded to Warnings late

 

Friday

            Rain begins

            Winds pick up by evening

            Some isolated flooding

            Isolated tornado warnings

 

Saturday

            Storm Surge of 5 to 8 feet along the coast

            Hurricane force winds along coast

            Gusty winds (40-60mph gusts) inland

            Power outages expected

            Some Flash Flood Warnings Likely

            Isolated coastal tornado warnings

 

-Chief Meteorologist Robb Ellis

HURRICANE MATTHEW UPDATE - WEDNESDAY EARLY AM

Overall, not much has changed in the forecast, though a few details have been tweaked.

ALERT DAYS

Wednesday and Thursday

                Evacuation Traffic from the coast could cause significant gridlock in the Midlands

Friday and Saturday

                Direct impacts from Matthew in the Midlands and at the coast

 

FORECAST TRACK

While there has been some movement to “hug” up to the FL/GA/SC coast, overall the track has not changed much. This means the impacts have not change much either.

Even though the center of the forecast cone remains technically offshore, hurricane conditions are still expected along the coast! Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the Midlands.

 

Shift in the forecast is not only still possible, but likely!

IMPACTS AND CONCERNS

In order, these are my biggest concerns from Matthew

1. TRAFFIC (Wed and Thurs)
2. Power Outages from gusty winds (Fri and Sat)
3. Hurricane Conditions along the coast (Fri Night and Sat)
4. Possible Midlands Flooding (Fri Night and Sat)
5. Residual traffic concerns (Sat and Sun) as evacuations lifted, traffic returns etc
6. Shortage of gas/supplies/groceries (Immediate)

 

 

TIMELINE OF EVENTS

WEDNESDAY

                EVACUATIONS BEGIN

                Traffic nightmare begins

                No Weather Impacts

                Run on Gas and Groceries

                Hurricane Watches likely issued for the coast

THURSDAY

                EVACUATIONS CONTINUE

                Traffic nightmare continues

                No Weather Impacts

                Hurricane Watches likely upgraded to Warnings

                High Wind Warnings (tropical Storm) probably issued for Midlands Counties

                Flash Flood Watches likely

FRIDAY

                Clouds thicken in AM

                Rain begins

                Winds pick up by afternoon

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY

                PEAK OF MATTHEW

                Storm Surge of 5 to 8 feet along the coast

                Hurricane force winds along coast

                Gusty winds (40-60mph) inland

                Power outages expected

                Some Flash Flood Warnings Likely

                Isolated coastal tornado warnings

SUNDAY

                Storm pulls away

                Skies clear

                Much Cooler conditions

Comprehensive Breakdown : Hurricane Matthew Monday Night Update

With new model data coming in late Monday night, I wanted to answer as many questions as I could about Hurricane Matthew and the expectations over the coming week.

Here is a breakdown of what we know so far:

 

Latest models indicate a HIGHER impact for the SC coast.

FIRST ALERT

We've added Saturday to our FIRST ALERT status.

 

 

FORECAST TRACK (Subject to forecast change)

The track remains very close to the entire southeast coast, including FL, GA, SC and NC. Most of the state is within the 5 Day forecast uncertainty cone. That means all of South Carolina is in play!

I expect the track to SHIFT WEST by the 2AM or 5AM advisory (new model data coming). This suggests the storm may ride the entire SC coastline.

 

TIMING (Subject to forecast change)

Some impacts could be felt as early as Friday morning, but the better chance is Friday night. Conditions would deteriorate into Saturday with a peak around Saturday afternoon. Because the motion has slowed, impacts could last into Saturday night, especially along the coast.

 

IMPACTS

REMEMBER: A hurricane is a large storm and impacts are felt well away from the center. Even if the track stays offshore, conditions may still be dangerous on land.

As frequently mentioned, the impacts will be determined by the proximity of the storm to the coast.

                SC Coast -

                                Potential hurricane conditions if the storm remains ON the coast or immediately offshore.

                                At the very least, heavy rain and rough seas are expected. Potential for direct landfall (or riding the coast) is possible.

                Midlands –

                                Heavy downpours with some gusty winds are possible, but the threat will ramp up if the track shifts closer.

There are typically 4 major impacts from landfalling tropical systems:

                SURGE                                  HIGH RISK FROM MATTHEW AT COAST

                RAIN/FLOODING              MEDIUM IMPACT INLAND, HIGH IMPACT COAST

                WINDS                                  MEDIUM IMPACT INLAND, HIGH IMPACT COAST

                TORNADOES                      LOW IMPACT INLAND, HIGH IMPACT COAST

 

TIMELINE (What to expect over the next few days)

TUESDAY

                Expect forecast changes to become less significant with one major exception:

                Typically 2-3 days out from an event there is “the shift.” I expect one some time late Tuesday or early Wednesday where the models suddenly all shift.

WEDNESDAY

                There may be some talk of voluntary coastal evacuations if the storm track gets closer to the coast

                Late : Hurricane Watches or Tropical Storm Watches may be issued for parts of the SC Coast (48 hours from potential impact)

                (Tropical Storm Watches if Tropical Storm conditions are expected…even if Matthew remains a hurricane)

THURSDAY

                Any Watches could be upgraded to Warnings.

                Depending on track, mandatory evacuations would need to be started by late Thursday.

FRIDAY

                Matthew’s Impacts overspread the state late from south to north, starting with clouds, then showers

                The storm could be just offshore of Savannah by Midnight.

SATURDAY (MAIN EVENT)

                Impacts continue as the storm moves along the coast

                Potential hurricane force winds for the entire SC coast.

                Storm may take most of the day to move up the SC coast.

                Conditions improve after sunset as the storm moves away.

 

-Chief Meteorologist Robb Ellis

FIRST ALERT : Hurricane Matthew 5PM Update

The 5PM update for Hurricane Matthew is in, and it's not good news. The track has shifted slightly west, bringing the 5Day plot very close to the NC/SC line.

This shift was in response to the earlier suite of global models that suggested a westward trend. It wasn't surprising, but it is concerning.

While plenty of uncertainty remains within that forecast, especially 5 days out, there is enough consistency close to the SC coast that at least some impacts will be felt in the Palmetto State.

Whether that impact will be a landfalling hurricane or just increased waves along the beaches remains to be seen.

 

-Chief Meteorologist Robb Ellis